Dancing with big businesses
National description
SOCIETY AND POLITICS
Global trade flows become concentrated and the market liberal EU is deregulating. Global large corporations invest in Finland in logistics and submarine data centres, among other things. The interests of companies and cities are steering the development more than the state and finding a shared political will is difficult. In addition to food production, maritime areas are being utilised especially as raw material for high added value products for the needs of companies. The high demand for resources leads to the expansion of the mining industry to the Baltic Sea, especially the Archipelago Sea area (e.g., battery technology, pharmaceuticals industry). Significant new innovations in the exploration of the seabed and the utilisation of nutrients. Increased environmental radicalism driven by individuals and small groups.
ENERGY
Environmental politics are ineffective as development is driven largely by companies and technology, and we are not getting rid of fossil fuels as we wanted. The use of peat also increases the marine nutrient load. The demand for energy increases in the Baltic Sea due to the electrification of the society (e.g., 5G network, traffic, smart cities), and large production facilities are favoured. Offshore wind power is built by large global corporations as very extensive farms with little regulation (on the open sea), which results in conflicts with regard to the use of the maritime areas.
MARITIME TRANSPORT
The development of data communications and autonomous technology rapidly affect logistics. Autonomous vessels are becoming more common in the Baltic Sea and the existing fairways are expanded and deepened. People and goods move fluently in cities and growth corridors, but on the other hand, transport to sparsely populated areas becomes slower and more expensive. The Helsinki–Tallinn tunnel is constructed with the support of Chinese investments, which has an impact on passenger traffic in particular. The volume of maritime logistics and vessel size increase and new solutions are being developed under the companies’ terms (incl. separate logistical networks of companies). Traffic in the Arctic Sea also increases steadily as the ice layer melts, and the logistical importance of the Northern Sea Route increases (Chinese interests, Arctic Ocean Railway).
CITIES AND POPULATION
Population concentrates in the biggest cities around the Baltic Sea (incl. St. Petersburg, Stockholm, Helsinki, Tallinn, Turku) and the significance of other shore cities reduces. The communities grow in Helsinki and Turku in particular and storm water flows from cities increase. The lack of joint immigration policy on the EU level leads to an uncontrolled refugee crisis. Climate refugeeship increases the passenger flows over the Baltic Sea and requires a new kind of cooperation and border operations between states. The majority of maritime traffic concerns the Gulf of Finland, around the metropolitan area.
THE ENVIRONMENT AND CONDITION OF THE MARITIME AREA
The Baltic Sea has regressed to a difficult patient as eutrophication and oxygen loss aggravate in all maritime areas. The increasing vessel traffic and hydraulic engineering reduce biodiversity, and introduced species become more abundant. Nutrients from agricultural emissions leach into the Baltic Sea more and more due to abundant raining and the nutrient load increases. Extreme weather phenomena caused by climate change, such as heavy rainfall and coastal area flooding are becoming more common. The increased rain and runoff water reduce the salt content of the Baltic Sea which hinders the living conditions of key species and communities. The sea level is increasing and affecting coastal areas especially during storms. Ice layer during the winter is also significantly smaller.
FISHING AND AQUACULTURE
Many species of fish are pushed into a corner as the living environments change, and the changes in species impact fishing. Key species such as bladder wrack disappear and the Baltic Sea’s ecosystem shakes. Commercial fishing for food reduces significantly due to the water quality and the fishing of forage fish increases. Typical sweetwater fish species become more common and fishing fleet more centralised (trawling further away from the shore). Foreign demand for fish is strong and exports of fish products increase. The increased water temperature hinders aquaculture in the south and the pressure to move towards the north increases. Aquaculture increases as it becomes more profitable and companies focus their production on larger and larger units. Large facilities are located primarily according to excellent cultivation conditions (cf. according to nutrient load).
TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE
Tourist interest is focused on the large cities and cultural heritage of the Baltic Sea and tourism focuses near the cities. Cultural heritage sites are bought from the state to private use, which endangers the preservation of cultural heritage (e.g., areas released by the Finnish Defence Force). Quick access is seen as an advantage of the Baltic Sea cities, and the cultural history of the region interests Asian tourists, for example. Due to the increasing effect of climate change, also German tourists are moving from the Mediterranean to the easily reachable Baltic Sea destinations. Cruise travel in the Baltic Sea increases strongly (e.g., large hotel ships). The poor condition of the maritime environment and privatization of areas (e.g., submarine data centres) reduce nature and cultural tourism in the archipelago and create prohibited areas. Activism tourism also increases.
Description of the plot
2019-2025
- Competition between countries drives Europe to reduce the regulation of industries. Finland also starts deregulation as an atmosphere favouring businesses grows stronger.
- Urbanisation accelerates even more and the Baltic Sea cities, such as St. Petersburg, Stockholm and Helsinki, increase uncontrollably. Storm water from the cities and littering (incl. microplastics, new chemicals) increase.
- China increases its investments on European infrastructure projects. The construction of Helsinki–Tallinn railway tunnel starts with Chinese funding. Building permits have been issued for the planned artificial islands as well.
- The demand for energy increases in the Baltic Sea due to the electrification of the society (e.g., 5G network, traffic, smart cities), and large production facilities are favoured. The data cabling of the Northern Sea Route from the Barents Sea to Asia is completed.
- Utilisation of marine minerals (tellurium, cobalt, manganese, phosphorus) increases, and so does the pressure to develop submarine mining activities. Global large corporations invest in Finland in submarine data centres as well.
- The interests of companies and cities are steering the development even more than the state and finding a shared political will is difficult. Citizens shy away from the control measures aimed at curbing climate change and the emissions of the society aren’t reduced sufficiently.
- Extreme weather phenomena caused by climate change, such as heavy rainfall and coastal area flooding gain strength in the Baltic Sea area. Attitudes towards the conservation of the marine environment are indifferent and cooperation between countries sporadic.
- With increased deregulation, large aquaculture facilities are planned for the northern maritime areas in particular.
2025-2035
- Discussion in the society focuses on the promotion of economic growth and EU’s environmental policy turn out to be ineffective with the development highly focused on companies and technology. The implementation of global climate treaties is in trouble.
- Very large offshore wind farms are constructed on the open sea especially by global corporations with little regulation.
- The tunnel between Helsinki and Tallinn opens for passenger and
freight transport, which significantly increases commuting between the cities. The Rail Baltica connection between Warsaw and Tallinn is also completed. - Ports are merged and some move to foreign ownership.
- The lack of joint immigration policy on the EU level leads to an uncontrolled refugee crisis, which also increases the passenger flows crossing the Baltic Sea by sea.
- German tourists are also moving from the hot Mediterranean to the easily reachable Baltic Sea destinations and cruise travel in the Baltic Sea increases strongly.
- The increasing demand for maritime minerals leads to the expansion of the mining industry to the Baltic Sea, especially the Archipelago Sea area (e.g., battery technology, pharmaceuticals industry).
- Load of the Baltic Sea increases substantially due to the increasing vessel traffic and hydraulic engineering, which is reflected in introduced species become more abundant, among other things. The increased rain and runoff water reduce the salt content of the Baltic Sea and the nutrient load increases.
- The poor water quality and strong storms slow down the development of aquaculture and the warming of the sea moves the focal area of fish farming further to the north. Commercial fishing for food reduces significantly and the fishing of forage fish increases even further.
2025-2050
- As people become frustrated with the weak regulation, environmental radicalism driven by individuals and small groups grows stronger. Large companies and cities take on a more powerful role in the meeting of climate targets.
- The polluted and congested Baltic Sea is utilised largely as a source of emission-free energy and industrial raw materials for the digitalised societies.
- The minimisation of climate emissions trumps the preservation of maritime nature’s diversity and conservation areas are reduced.
- Big companies develop more and more private energy production solutions and logistics networks. Autonomous freight transport also increases in the Baltic Sea and new remote control centres are established.
- Traffic in the Arctic Sea increases steadily and the logistical importance of the Northern Sea Route increases (Chinese interests, Arctic Ocean Railway).
- Private maritime areas of companies become more common (e.g., submarine data centres, test areas of autonomous vessels), which affects the preservation of cultural heritage, among other things.
- The poor condition of the maritime environment reduces nature and cultural tourism significantly. Increased tourism brings energy to the biggest cities, but the infrastructure and services in the archipelago weaken.
- The ecosystem of the Baltic Sea changes significantly and many key species, such as bladder wrack disappear. The Baltic Sea changes into a warm and eutrophied sweet water basin.
- Demand for domestic fish produced for food decreases and imported fish is eaten almost solely in Finland.
impacts on MSP’s objectives
BLUE GROWTH
- The exploitation of natural resources is powerful and short-sighted. Operations are focused on large units and focal areas, such as extensive wind power areas, tourism hotspots and busy cruise and logistics routes.
- Industries become more polarized and concentrates: fish farming increases, for example, but the fishing culture withers; tourism and recreational opportunities are focused on certain areas and wealthy people. Regions become polarized as winners and losers in terms of trade and industry.
- Conflicts emerge between sectors with increased activity and deregulation. On the other hand, there are opportunities for synergy benefits between operators. Circular economy and cleantech innovations create opportunities.
- Ecosystem services deteriorate, which reduces the opportunities of blue economy, e.g., the negative impact of the deteriorated state of the sea on fish farming, impact of environmental deterioration on tourism.
STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT
- The ecological state of the marine environment is disturbed and water quality decreases, oxygen loss areas increase, diversity decreases.
- Natural values may strengthen in the outlying areas with the reduced use.
- The archipelago and outlying areas become deserted, which endangers to the cultural environment and heritage of the areas.
- The powerful development of sea transport and the increased tourism increase carbon dioxide emissions to air.
- Large-scale operations allow maximal raw materials efficiency. Citizens’ movements may become active as the condition of the environment deteriorates, putting pressure on the operation of big businesses. It is possible that big corporations start investing on sustainable operating methods and technology, which will promote the improvement of the environment.
Indicative opportunities of scenario 1 identified based on the workshops with regard to the state of the environment, blue growth and people’s well-being and participation.
PEOPLE’S WELL-BEING AND PARTICIPATION
- Benefits from the natural resources are steered to big businesses at the expense of the local environment and local operators.
- Business directedness generates jobs on the hotspot areas, whereas services disappear from the archipelago and outlying areas and living conditions deteriorate.
- Everyman’s rights deteriorate due to privatization.
