Profitability under the environment’s terms
National description
SOCIETY AND POLITICS
Concern over the environment is increasing and climate issues become a central focus of politics. The state participates actively in different methods of conservation, and private persons, municipalities, parishes and companies also become active in natural conservation. Consumers are more and more environmentally aware and the ecological footstep steers consumption (e.g., cruise compensations). People’s personal choices also strongly guide companies towards providing sustainable solutions. New business models are searched under the terms of sustainability, and Finland is a forerunner in the development of sustainable technology. Current cleantech and biotechnology clusters gain strength (e.g. algae farming). The security status on the Baltic Sea is stable as the attention of superpowers is focused elsewhere.
ENERGY
Forms of renewable energy production (incl. solar and wind power) become significantly more common and emission-free forms of energy become cheaper. As storage technology improves, the production of energy becomes decentralized, and the improved storage capacity also increases the demand for wind power. The search for renewable forms of energy is strong by means of environmental policy and the state supports the connection of offshore wind power to the grid (e.g., Denmark). Due to the investment environment favourable to offshore wind power, the stabile security situation and the development of technology, production is profitable also further from the shore. The combination of wind power and other forms of energy gives integration benefits with the increasing electric maritime transport, for example. Wind power farms also become more and more tourist attractions.
MARITIME TRANSPORT
The harmful impacts of maritime logistics on the environment reduce as a result of improved environmental awareness, technological development, cleaner fuels, local production and circular economy solutions. Vessel traffic increasingly switches to fuel cells and nuclear power. Small volume transport becomes more and more common, which moves the load from the sea to the air and also improves the accessibility and services of the archipelago. Technological development, such as industrial scale 3D printing and new circular economy solutions improve access to resources, but also increase the transport of waste on the sea. Local traffic and logistics are emphasised.
CITIES AND POPULATION
Urbanization continues, but people seek clean nature in increasing volumes. New housing trends (such as living in several places, compact small houses, cottages for round-the-year use) and the transformation of work life (remote work etc.) increase the popularity of the archipelago also for living. Infrastructure, traffic connections and services improve in the archipelago and pedestrian and bicycle traffic increases.
THE ENVIRONMENT AND CONDITION OF THE MARITIME AREA
The state of the Baltic Sea is seen as an international environmental issue, and the total benefits of a clean sea are mainly recognized in all the Baltic Sea countries. Conservation measures are promoted significantly, and shared monitoring systems with impact are constructed. The harmful impact of climate change on the weather at the Baltic Sea also turns out to be less severe than expected. Agricultural nutrient load and other activities causing load on the ground reduce (incl. changes in eating habits, stricter water protection in the agriculture, improved purification of municipal sewage, circular economy solutions), which promotes the improvement of the maritime area’s condition. Eutrophication is managed and blue-green algae are no longer an issue every summer. Increased awareness also reduces the littering of the Baltic Sea. The processing of sewage of (passenger) vessels also improvesand the spreading of alien species is brought under control.
FISHING AND AQUACULTURE
Natural fish populations gain strength and professional and leisure fishing increase within the boundaries allowed by the environment when the demand for wild fish increases. The increased consumption of natural fish and fishing, on the other hand, remove nutrients which have already ended up in the Baltic Sea. The popularity of Baltic herring in food also increases when toxicity levels decrease and cyprinid populations diminish. The vitality of the archipelago guarantees good opportunities for fishing entrepreneurs, but also private and coastal fishing increase within the boundaries allowed by the environment in the archipelago and the Bay of Bothnia in particular. Strict environmental regulation restricts the increase of large-scale aquaculture on the sea and fish farming in closed water systems becomes more common, especially on the ground. The combined production level of aquaculture remains unchanged, focusing on the open sea where it causes the least harm to the marine environment. Aquaculture is increasingly located by wind power parks in the open sea.
TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE
The calm and clean environment and the service packages offered by archipelago residents in digital platforms attract new tourists to the Baltic Sea from nearby countries (incl. cultural and nature tourism). The culture of shared use blooms in the capital region in particular where digital peer-to-peer services have become a part of daily life (e.g., skipperi.com and doerz.com). With the increased climate awareness, Finns also start to favour tourism in nearby regions which increases the popularity of the archipelago as a recreational area. Local culture and nature tourism services are appreciated and also traditional trades gain strength. As tourism businesses increase, the majority of tourism concerns the Archipelago Sea and nature sites.
Description of the plot
2019-2025
- Climate anxiety and concern for the environment increase and more and more people are willing to reduce their carbon footprint. Climate issues also become the focus of politics and regulation increases.
- Clean forms of energy production become even cheaper and renewable energy is also promoted by means of strong environmental politics.
- The state introduces a subsidy for connecting offshore wind power to the grid (e.g., Denmark). The development of electric traffic (incl. infrastructure) is also strongly subsidised.
- Consumer’s demand for environmentally friendly solutions also strongly guides companies towards providing sustainable solutions. Different communities, regions, associations and companies become active in nature conservation (incl. the Baltic Sea).
- Personal eating habits are changed successfully and the demand for domestic natural fish increases also due to the higher taxation of meat. The compensation of consumption becomes increasingly popular also from the perspective of the conservation of the Baltic Sea.
- The poor condition of the Baltic Sea is discussed more and more as the blooming blue-green algae increases and hot summers become more common. A major oil or chemical accident also increases awareness of the state of the sea.
- Investments in bio and circular economy as well as cleantech research and development increase substantially. Local production (such as 3D printing) gains popularity due to the focus on resource efficiency and new innovations are created to replace harmful materials.
- Long-distance travel loses popularity due to the higher taxation of flight travel and the slowdown of economic growth, and domestic tourism destinations are developed widely.
2025-2035
- The state of the Baltic Sea is seen as an international environmental issue, and the total benefits of a clean sea are recognized by most of the Baltic Sea countries. Conservation measures are promoted significantly and shared monitoring systems are constructed.
- Several Baltic Sea countries, such as Denmark, Sweden and Finland, reach carbon neutrality already in the 2030s as a result of significant increase in emission-free energy production and a radical change in consumer behaviour.
- As storage technology improves, the production of energy becomes decentralized, and the improved storage capacity also increases the demand for wind power.
- Thanks to the investment environment favourable to offshore wind power and the development of (turbine) technology, the profitability of offshore wind power improves significantly and several new wind power farms are built on the open sea. Floating wind and solar power stations are also developed.
- The price of electricity falls with the substantial increase in offshore wind power and (sea) traffic becomes electrical. The electrification of traffic also reaches to waters and e-boats can be charged in the archipelago marinas.
- Small volume transport also increases substantially, which moves the load from the sea to the air and also improves the accessibility and services of the archipelago. Tourism in the nearby regions becomes more popular.
- New housing trends and the transformation of work life increase the popularity of the archipelago also for living.
- Natural fish populations gain strength and professional and leisure fishing increase. The increased fishing of natural fish removes nutrients which have already ended up in the Baltic Sea.
- Strict environmental regulation restricts the increase of large-scale aquaculture on the sea and fish farming in closed water systems becomes more common as the availability of energy improves.
2035-2050
- Agricultural nutrient load and other activities causing load on the ground reduce (incl. changes in eating habits, improved purification of municipal sewage, circular economy solutions), and the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is brought under control.
- Harmful environmental impacts of the industry are decreased substantially by increased regulation, local production and introduction of business models based on circular economy. Conservation areas have been expanded and environmental requirements tightened significantly.
- Maintaining a good state of the marine environment steers the development of operations (cf. central treatment plants established and centralised port operations). Operations concerning the seafloor harmful to the environment are focused near urban areas and by the fairways.
- Renewable sources of energy (incl. solar energy, geothermal heat, wave energy) are utilised extensively and the cost competitiveness of offshore wind power surpasses that of nuclear power. With the development of energy storage technology, wind power farms are also used for the storage of energy.
- Lifestyles and consumption patterns related to housing, recreation, transport and food have undergone a profound change. Daily life is characterised by the sharing economy, digital platforms and shared use.
- Living in several places (incl. dual municipal residency) has become clearly more popular and the archipelago has round-the-year service provision and residents.
- The improved infrastructure also allows commuting from the archipelago (cf. Stockholm) and emission-free passenger and minor transport increase. Load caused by tourism, partly uncontrolled, increases in the archipelago in particular.
- Fish is mostly grown in closed system facilities on the ground.
Impacts on MSP's objectives
BLUE GROWTH
- Local businesses gain strength with increased regional and nature tourism the strengthening of local fishing trades, for example.
- The opportunities for blue growth are good in many sectors. The opportunity to be a forerunner in cleantech solutions and export competence.
- The construction of solar and wind power projects increases in line with the political will and environmental awareness. Some decentralisation can be observed in energy production but, on the other hand, also large facilities are built. Self-sufficiency in energy production may increase.
- Small-scale trades may not necessarily stay viable.
- The operation of the industry and ports as well as big companies may decline.
STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT
- The negative effects on the environment generally decrease on a large scale with, for example, the electrification of transport and the reduction of ship emissions and the reduced carbon footprint of energy production. The state of the sea improves in general.
- Harmful environmental effects may increase locally as a result of erosion of the nature due to the extensive decentralisation of operations, such as that related to increased living and tourism in the archipelago and increased local traffic. Wind power stations also harm the coastal ecosystems, cultural environment and sceneries.
PEOPLE’S WELL-BEING AND PARTICIPATION
- The role of local operations and operators strengthens.
- The archipelago gains vitality as a result of the strengthening of local livelihoods and the increased living in the archipelago and development of services made possible by digitalisation. The communal archipelago culture grows stronger, which in turn supports the preservation of cultural environments.
- Increased self-sufficiency and local and small production have a positive effect on people’s well-being.
Indicative opportunities of scenario 2 identified based on the workshops with regard to the state of the environment, blue growth and people’s well-being and participation.